CORONAVIRUS DEMOGRAPHICS OFFERS CLUES AS TO SANE RESPONSE

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Age of Coronavirus Deaths

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old	21.9%	14.8%
70-79 years old		8.0%
60-69 years old		3.6%
50-59 years old		1.3%
40-49 years old		0.4%
30-39 years old		0.2%
20-29 years old		0.2%
10-19 years old		0.2%
0-9 years old		no fatalities

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group.

In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.

Pre-existing medical conditions (comorbidities)

Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
Cardiovascular disease	13.2%	10.5%
Diabetes	9.2%	7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease	8.0%	6.3%
Hypertension	8.4%	6.0%
Cancer	7.6%	5.6%
no pre-existing conditions		0.9%

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.

This bizarre current state of affairs, i.e. a detrimental overreaction to a variant of the flu (yes, that's all it is) has our recently vibrant economy on the brink of a deliberate collapse. 

Who gains?

That is the question.

Not to minimize this flu variant, but using a hammer vice a screw driver to address the problem is way overkill (no pun intended). 

The chart above speaks for itself. Unlike the Spanish influenza which killed off the young (sorry, but THEY are the most vital/valuable component of our civilization, not someone like me in their mid-50s), this virus is a Malthusian wet dream: it targets the weak/vulnerable and those past their economic prime. 

That is the reality. 

Does that mean we shouldn't address this latest flu? Of course not. 

However, shutting down the entire country and keeping young and healthy people out of school, and the workforce, has long term unforeseen consequences. Dire consequences that will have the "experts" scratching their heads in the future as to what actually transpired and "lessons learned" (although if history is any guide, those "lessons" will end up forgotten come the next crisis).

What should've happened is those with preexisting conditions, the elderly and such should be quarantined (voluntarily). If this population ignores the guidelines then the onus is on them. Every effort should be made to offer priority care to said populace.

The rest of us should have gone on as business as usual.

Just like we do every year during the Flu season. This past flu season we had over 30,000 plus dead. Yet, life went on. As it should. Must. Civilization depends on carrying on, not shutting down.

Imposition of quasi martial law, will lead to far more dead (suicides, opioid overdoses, obesity related illnesses) as our governments (local and state) impose closures of schools and businesses so everyone runs to stockpile food and toilet paper that they don't need, sit at home and eat. Gyms and parks are closed. 

Destruction of civil society is not the solution. Had this been the equivalent of the Black Plague, then a much more draconian response may be required, but people aren't dying in the 1000s on a daily basis. 

Yes, it is unfortunate that some will die from this new virus. But death is inevitable. Just like, as a society, we try to mitigate disappointment, struggle and hardship (prizes for all, everyone is a winner), we seem to be hell bent of mitigating the inevitable: DEATH.  

Problem is: we can't. Delay, sure. Eliminate, nope.  

Sanity must prevail and the country needs to get back on its feet.

Professor Victor Davis Hanson's article: "America in a New Upside-Down World"

https://amgreatness.com/2020/03/15/america-in-a-new-upside-down-world/

Another excellent article:

https://archive.fo/sAElA

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

MARCH 26 2020: CORONAVIRUS "CRISIS" UPDATE

Realize no one reads this blog. But I find it quite cathartic to occasionally vent on topics that frustrate because, far too often, unfolding events are like watching in slow motion a horrific train crash. 
Whatever happened to common sense and self assessment vice listening to those with ulterior agendas aka fear mongers? OK, notwithstanding Lord Disraeli's warning about statistics, aka cooking the books ("Lies, damned lies and statistics), let's delve into the NUMBERS as of today March 26, 2020. 
Here is the reliable website link:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

According to the latest information as of 9:30 AM EST, China, Italy and the UK have ZERO new cases. Granted Chinese statistics need to be caveated as "reader beware." The US had 10 dead. Does this sound like a pandemic along the lines of the Bubonic Plague or the Spanish influenza? Yet, we have shut down our economy and added another two TRILLION to our overweight debt. 

There is something very sinister about all this. We have given both our federal and state governments carte blanche powers that are unprecedented in our history. That should give room for pause. Amazing how easy it has all been for certain entities all at the expense of civil society. 

Granted these numbers will inevitably increase but the larger context needs to be kept in mind: destroying our economy by shutting it down and forcing healthy people to stay in place makes no logical sense. If quarantine is necessary (which I suspect it isn't), it should be targeting people who are in poor health due to obesity and poor lifestyle choices, have pre-existing medical conditions and/or have compromised immune systems. 

The rest of us need to develop herd immunity for the next iteration of this variant of the flu virus. Preventing herd immunity of the healthy translates into a similar situation next time Covid-19 appears. Will shut downs become a very dangerous, suicidal, societal norm?

CASES TODAY AS OF 9:30AM EST, MARCH 26, 2020:

• Now
• Yesterday

Search:

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Tot Deaths/ 1M pop
China	81,285	+67	3,287	+6	74,051	3,947	1,235	56	2
Italy	74,386		7,503		9,362	57,521	3,489	1,230	124
USA	68,814	+603	1,037	+10	428	67,349	1,455	208	3
Spain	56,188	+6,673	4,089	+442	7,015	45,084	3,166	1,202	87
Germany	39,572	+2,249	224	+18	3,959	35,389	23	472	3
Iran	29,406	+2,389	2,234	+157	10,457	16,715	2,746	350	27
France	25,233		1,331		3,900	20,002	2,827	387	20
Switzerland	11,316	+419	171	+18	131	11,014	141	1,308	20
UK	9,529		465		135	8,929	163	140	7

THE CORONAVIRUS BOONDOGGLE: THE POLITICS OF STATE INTERVENTION

Just judging from the numbers, the response of both our Federal and State governments to the Corona Virus, aka Chinese Virus, is mind boggling on multiple levels. Worse it sets a dangerous precedent for intrusive government intervention into controlling (even destroying) our individual lives, all in the name of "collective safety."

Comparatively speaking, the annual Flu season has been far deadlier yet, as in the past, it has not led the government to intervene and force massive social and economic disruption. What gives?

Again, comparatively speaking, this "health crisis" --referred to as a "Pandemic" (which it is not; more later on that)-- doesn't compare to actual Pandemics, the worst of which was the 14th century Black Plague that cost Europe a third of its population. ONE IN THREE PEOPLE DEAD. It took two hundred years for Europe to recover in terms of numbers.

Here in the state of Virginia, we have a total of 125 cases and 2 deaths as of March 21st, 2020. Yes, TWO people out of a population of 8.5 million have died. Yet, we are in essence in a lock down. The only places open are grocery stores and gas stations.  Schools are closed, as are places of employment, over a few cases of a variant of the flu. Albeit, a new strain.

So why is it being called a "Pandemic"?

Definition of a Pandemic from the Dictionary of Epidemiology:

A pandemic is an epidemic occurring on a scale that crosses international boundaries, usually affecting a large number of people.

What is the threshold in terms of numbers and deaths that rises to the level of a "pandemic"? How is this determined and by whom?

 Given that our global population is approaching 8 Billion, wouldn't a "pandemic" would involve something approaching a billion souls infected?

So let's look at the current numbers (as of March 21, 2020) of a virus that first appeared in China in November of last year:
307,000 cases globally; 13,000 deaths and 95,000 recovered.

Does this sound like a "pandemic" worthy of destroying our economy??

To put the current virus in its proper historical perspective, see this excellent article that provides timely context:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8120631/Visual-timeline-coronavirus-compares-historys-deadly-pandemics.html

Please see this useful website for daily updates and other data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

According to Stanford professor of epidemiology and population health, John P.A. Ioannidis: 

In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.

The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.

One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.

If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Given the current draconian measures that have forced most of the  country into lock down, one needs to ask "why now?"   In comparison, the H1N1, also known as the Swine Flu (January 2009 to August 2010),  infected an estimated 11 to 21 % of the global population (700 million-1.4 billion out of 6.8 billion), which was more than the number of people infected by the 1918 Spanish Influenza and had between 150,000 to 575,000 fatalities.

On December 10, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 50 million Americans (1 in 6 people) had been infected with the 2009 H1N1 Virus.  By December, 10,000 Americans had died. A September 2010 study concluded that the risk of serious illness from the H1N1 flu was no higher that that of the annual seasonal flu.

Yet during the H1N1 pandemic (and it can rightly be called one given the numbers infected), there was no lockdown and none of this level of hysteria which has, oddly, driven people to focus on their toilet paper supplies rather than stockpiling vitamin c and zinc.

As Professor Ioannidis warns, our decision to jump off the cliff may turn out to be the end result of a herd mentality driven by irrational fear and emotion rather than actual science aka data.

If we continue on this self destructive trajectory, the long term economic ramifications may lead to far more lives destroyed than the damage done by this virus that, so far, pales in comparison to past pandemics. Worse, the precedent for intrusive state intervention into civil society in the future has been set. A very dangerous precedent based on flimsy evidence.