Friday, March 27, 2020

CORONAVIRUS DEMOGRAPHICS OFFERS CLUES AS TO SANE RESPONSE


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Age of Coronavirus Deaths

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.
AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group.
In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.

Pre-existing medical conditions (comorbidities)

Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.
PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.

This bizarre current state of affairs, i.e. a detrimental overreaction to a variant of the flu (yes, that's all it is) has our recently vibrant economy on the brink of a deliberate collapse. 

Who gains?


That is the question.

Not to minimize this flu variant, but using a hammer vice a screw driver to address the problem is way overkill (no pun intended). 

The chart above speaks for itself. Unlike the Spanish influenza which killed off the young (sorry, but THEY are the most vital/valuable component of our civilization, not someone like me in their mid-50s), this virus is a Malthusian wet dream: it targets the weak/vulnerable and those past their economic prime. 

That is the reality. 

Does that mean we shouldn't address this latest flu? Of course not. 

However, shutting down the entire country and keeping young and healthy people out of school, and the workforce, has long term unforeseen consequences. Dire consequences that will have the "experts" scratching their heads in the future as to what actually transpired and "lessons learned" (although if history is any guide, those "lessons" will end up forgotten come the next crisis).

What should've happened is those with preexisting conditions, the elderly and such should be quarantined (voluntarily). If this population ignores the guidelines then the onus is on them. Every effort should be made to offer priority care to said populace.

The rest of us should have gone on as business as usual.

Just like we do every year during the Flu season. This past flu season we had over 30,000 plus dead. Yet, life went on. As it should. Must. Civilization depends on carrying on, not shutting down.

Imposition of quasi martial law, will lead to far more dead (suicides, opioid overdoses, obesity related illnesses) as our governments (local and state) impose closures of schools and businesses so everyone runs to stockpile food and toilet paper that they don't need, sit at home and eat. Gyms and parks are closed. 

Destruction of civil society is not the solution. Had this been the equivalent of the Black Plague, then a much more draconian response may be required, but people aren't dying in the 1000s on a daily basis. 

Yes, it is unfortunate that some will die from this new virus. But death is inevitable. Just like, as a society, we try to mitigate disappointment, struggle and hardship (prizes for all, everyone is a winner), we seem to be hell bent of mitigating the inevitable: DEATH.  

Problem is: we can't. Delay, sure. Eliminate, nope.  

Sanity must prevail and the country needs to get back on its feet.

Professor Victor Davis Hanson's article: "America in a New Upside-Down World"


Another excellent article:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/