Friday, May 29, 2020

NEW DYSTOPIAN REALITY PROPOSED: MASS SURVEILLANCE AS THE "NEW NORMAL"


Naomi Klein in her thought provoking article published in "The Intercept"  on May 8th, 2020 describes how the State of New York has tasked Bill Gates to "reinvent" New York's post-Covid protocol which would involve a permanent integration of technology into every individual citizen's civic life.  Yup, that's the "new Orwellian normal." Enjoy. Not. 

https://theintercept.com/2020/05/08/andrew-cuomo-eric-schmidt-coronavirus-tech-shock-doctrine/


It has taken some time to gel, but something resembling a coherent pandemic shock doctrine is beginning to emerge. Call it the Screen New Deal. Far more hi-tech than anything we have seen during previous disasters, the future that is being rushed into being as the bodies still pile up treats our past weeks of physical isolation not as a painful necessity to save lives, but as a living laboratory for a permanent — and highly profitable — no-touch future
It’s a future in which our homes are never again exclusively personal spaces, but are also, via high-speed digital connectivity, our schools, our doctor’s offices, our gyms, and, if determined by the state, our jails …
It’s a future in which our every move, our every word, our every relationship is trackable, traceable and data-mineable by unprecedented collaborations between government and tech giants.
If all of this sounds familiar, it’s because, pre-Covid, this precise app-driven, gig-fueled future was being sold to us in the name of friction-free convenience and personalization. But many of us had concerns …
Today, a great many of those well-founded concerns are being swept away by a tidal wave of panic, and this warmed-over dystopia is going through a rush-job rebranding.
Now, against a harrowing backdrop of mass death, it is being sold to us on the dubious promise that these technologies are the only possible way to pandemic-proof our lives, the indispensable keys to keeping ourselves and our loved ones safe …
At the heart of this vision is seamless integration of government with a handful of Silicon Valley giants — with public schools, hospitals, doctor’s offices, police and military all outsourcing (at a high cost) many of their core functions to private tech companies.”
******* 


In closing, some thoughts bear pondering:

Amazing times we live in on multiple fronts. Without firing a shot, those "governing" us have shed us of our fundamental liberties embedded in The Bill of Rights. How will history judge this period? A time when, under the guise of a false "pandemic," we essentially moved towards the destruction of civil society. Specifically, at the state and local levels, decisions were made wherein HEALTHY citizenry were quarantined. A first in human history . Repeat: A FIRST IN HUMAN HISTORY.

Utterly defies commonsense and logic to imprison healthy people in their homes, while demanding nursing homes admit Covid-19 patients. One risks being labeled a 'conspiracy theorist' if one argues that this may have been intentional in order to destroy a booming economy and to assist in spiking the numbers of cases. 
Follow the money. Who benefits? This is beyond sinister. It is evil.

In closing, as mentioned in my earlier post in March, what is of gravest concern to me is the dangerous precedent which has now been set that allows governmental entities, at various levels, to control our behavior all in the name of "public safety/interest." We have embarked on a very slippery slope from which there may be no return: who will decide the acceptable threshold (of death) in the future that, in their short sighted minds, warrants future lockdowns; second; what will be the threshold, and will it be re-calibrated to the absurd and destructive point that more than a cluster of deaths from a flu variant will be an unacceptable "spike"? 


This Wuhan virus has been used as a "weapon" in a manner that Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu would appreciate for it was he who coined the phrase: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."   

Seems like we --the citizenry-- are being subdued on multiple fronts: from government surveillance to "shelter-in-place." 

This seems to have been a test. And we, the people, failed (or passed) depending on one's vantage point.



Sunday, April 26, 2020

LESSONS FROM THE PRISONERS OF WAR UPRISING AT BADABER


Thirty five years ago, April 26th,  witnessed the start of the heroic last stand of the Soviet and Afghan prisoners of war at Badaber, a former US Air Base on the outskirts of Peshawar, Pakistan.

The details, which exposed the Pakistan Army's -- specifically General Zia ul Haq's-- complicity, were suppressed by Pakistan's military junta fearful of the 'Great Bear' right at its doorstep.

The duplicitous General, however, wasn't just trying to deceive the Soviets. Nope, he was trying to play BOTH Super Powers for fools.  And he did it rather well, cunning as he was...until the Badaber uprising which exposed the illegal confinement, in brutal conditions, of Russian and other Soviet soldiers and their Afghan comrades.

The Soviet invasion, and occupation, of Afghanistan (1979-1989) gave the Pakistan military an inflated sense of its own self importance.  Which would lead to further actions that would ultimately destabilize the entire region and far beyond, not to mention the state itself, due to inevitable blow back. 

You can't play dirty and expect to stay "clean."

With the Soviet invasion, General Zia, and his cohorts, quickly realized --at the same time Lebanese militias did in Beirut-- that the feared (thus respected) United States government could be manipulated/leveraged/played for more than the "peanuts" Zia so famously declined from Jimmy Carter. 

How dare a Super Power offer "peanuts" for clandestine access to deal the Soviets a big blow in return for Vietnam?!

Thus was set in motion a convoluted US policy in the Eighties vis-a-vis Pakistan whose disastrous effects still resonate today in Afghanistan.

Back to the prisoners of war's uprising at the Badaber base. The details are to be found in my April 26th, 2015 blog post on this site:

http://shireenkhanburki.blogspot.com/2015/04/30th-anniversary-of-prisoner-uprising.html


The key takeaway from this forgotten historical footnote was that General Zia, and his merry band of Generals, were capable of violating international law via the illegal captivity of uniformed prisoners of war held in horrendous conditions.  

Sure the Soviet regime would extract a costly price from the Pakistan Army; just as they did from a certain militia in Beirut when the Lebanese tried identical tricks, which worked so successfully with the Reagan Administration, in order to extract generous ransoms. One backfired attempt.

There was a movie made in the 90s called "Peshawar Waltz" about this brave last stand of these prisoners of war at Badaber.


Footnote: Finding Bin Laden in Abbottabad military cantonment should've been expected given the duplicitous Pakistani track record. 

Friday, March 27, 2020

CORONAVIRUS DEMOGRAPHICS OFFERS CLUES AS TO SANE RESPONSE


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Age of Coronavirus Deaths

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.
AGE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group.
In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.

Pre-existing medical conditions (comorbidities)

Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.
PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.

This bizarre current state of affairs, i.e. a detrimental overreaction to a variant of the flu (yes, that's all it is) has our recently vibrant economy on the brink of a deliberate collapse. 

Who gains?


That is the question.

Not to minimize this flu variant, but using a hammer vice a screw driver to address the problem is way overkill (no pun intended). 

The chart above speaks for itself. Unlike the Spanish influenza which killed off the young (sorry, but THEY are the most vital/valuable component of our civilization, not someone like me in their mid-50s), this virus is a Malthusian wet dream: it targets the weak/vulnerable and those past their economic prime. 

That is the reality. 

Does that mean we shouldn't address this latest flu? Of course not. 

However, shutting down the entire country and keeping young and healthy people out of school, and the workforce, has long term unforeseen consequences. Dire consequences that will have the "experts" scratching their heads in the future as to what actually transpired and "lessons learned" (although if history is any guide, those "lessons" will end up forgotten come the next crisis).

What should've happened is those with preexisting conditions, the elderly and such should be quarantined (voluntarily). If this population ignores the guidelines then the onus is on them. Every effort should be made to offer priority care to said populace.

The rest of us should have gone on as business as usual.

Just like we do every year during the Flu season. This past flu season we had over 30,000 plus dead. Yet, life went on. As it should. Must. Civilization depends on carrying on, not shutting down.

Imposition of quasi martial law, will lead to far more dead (suicides, opioid overdoses, obesity related illnesses) as our governments (local and state) impose closures of schools and businesses so everyone runs to stockpile food and toilet paper that they don't need, sit at home and eat. Gyms and parks are closed. 

Destruction of civil society is not the solution. Had this been the equivalent of the Black Plague, then a much more draconian response may be required, but people aren't dying in the 1000s on a daily basis. 

Yes, it is unfortunate that some will die from this new virus. But death is inevitable. Just like, as a society, we try to mitigate disappointment, struggle and hardship (prizes for all, everyone is a winner), we seem to be hell bent of mitigating the inevitable: DEATH.  

Problem is: we can't. Delay, sure. Eliminate, nope.  

Sanity must prevail and the country needs to get back on its feet.

Professor Victor Davis Hanson's article: "America in a New Upside-Down World"


Another excellent article:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/



Thursday, March 26, 2020

MARCH 26 2020: CORONAVIRUS "CRISIS" UPDATE

Realize no one reads this blog. But I find it quite cathartic to occasionally vent on topics that frustrate because, far too often, unfolding events are like watching in slow motion a horrific train crash. 
Whatever happened to common sense and self assessment vice listening to those with ulterior agendas aka fear mongers? OK, notwithstanding Lord Disraeli's warning about statistics, aka cooking the books ("Lies, damned lies and statistics), let's delve into the NUMBERS as of today March 26, 2020. 
Here is the reliable website link:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

According to the latest information as of 9:30 AM EST, China, Italy and the UK have ZERO new cases. Granted Chinese statistics need to be caveated as "reader beware." The US had 10 dead. Does this sound like a pandemic along the lines of the Bubonic Plague or the Spanish influenza? Yet, we have shut down our economy and added another two TRILLION to our overweight debt. 

There is something very sinister about all this. We have given both our federal and state governments carte blanche powers that are unprecedented in our history. That should give room for pause. Amazing how easy it has all been for certain entities all at the expense of civil society. 

Granted these numbers will inevitably increase but the larger context needs to be kept in mind: destroying our economy by shutting it down and forcing healthy people to stay in place makes no logical sense. If quarantine is necessary (which I suspect it isn't), it should be targeting people who are in poor health due to obesity and poor lifestyle choices, have pre-existing medical conditions and/or have compromised immune systems. 

The rest of us need to develop herd immunity for the next iteration of this variant of the flu virus. Preventing herd immunity of the healthy translates into a similar situation next time Covid-19 appears. Will shut downs become a very dangerous, suicidal, societal norm?




CASES TODAY AS OF 9:30AM EST, MARCH 26, 2020:



Saturday, March 21, 2020

THE CORONAVIRUS BOONDOGGLE: THE POLITICS OF STATE INTERVENTION


Just judging from the numbers, the response of both our Federal and State governments to the Corona Virus, aka Chinese Virus, is mind boggling on multiple levels. Worse it sets a dangerous precedent for intrusive government intervention into controlling (even destroying) our individual lives, all in the name of "collective safety."

Comparatively speaking, the annual Flu season has been far deadlier yet, as in the past, it has not led the government to intervene and force massive social and economic disruption. What gives?

Again, comparatively speaking, this "health crisis" --referred to as a "Pandemic" (which it is not; more later on that)-- doesn't compare to actual Pandemics, the worst of which was the 14th century Black Plague that cost Europe a third of its population. ONE IN THREE PEOPLE DEAD. It took two hundred years for Europe to recover in terms of numbers.

Here in the state of Virginia, we have a total of 125 cases and 2 deaths as of March 21st, 2020. Yes, TWO people out of a population of 8.5 million have died. Yet, we are in essence in a lock down. The only places open are grocery stores and gas stations.  Schools are closed, as are places of employment, over a few cases of a variant of the flu. Albeit, a new strain.

So why is it being called a "Pandemic"?

Definition of a Pandemic from the Dictionary of Epidemiology:

A pandemic is an epidemic occurring on a scale that crosses international boundaries, usually affecting a large number of people.

What is the threshold in terms of numbers and deaths that rises to the level of a "pandemic"? How is this determined and by whom?

 Given that our global population is approaching 8 Billion, wouldn't a "pandemic" would involve something approaching a billion souls infected?

So let's look at the current numbers (as of March 21, 2020) of a virus that first appeared in China in November of last year:
307,000 cases globally; 13,000 deaths and 95,000 recovered.

Does this sound like a "pandemic" worthy of destroying our economy??

To put the current virus in its proper historical perspective, see this excellent article that provides timely context:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8120631/Visual-timeline-coronavirus-compares-historys-deadly-pandemics.html


The true scale of the coronavirus outbreak currently sweeping the world has been laid bare in a visual timeline comparing it to history's most deadly pandemics. It shows the bubonic plague, also known as the Black Death, was the most lethal of all diseases, killing roughly 200million people in the 14th century

Please see this useful website for daily updates and other data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

According to Stanford professor of epidemiology and population health, John P.A. Ioannidis: 
In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.
The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.
One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.
If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe.

Given the current draconian measures that have forced most of the  country into lock down, one needs to ask "why now?"   In comparison, the H1N1, also known as the Swine Flu (January 2009 to August 2010),  infected an estimated 11 to 21 % of the global population (700 million-1.4 billion out of 6.8 billion), which was more than the number of people infected by the 1918 Spanish Influenza and had between 150,000 to 575,000 fatalities.

On December 10, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 50 million Americans (1 in 6 people) had been infected with the 2009 H1N1 Virus.  By December, 10,000 Americans had died. A September 2010 study concluded that the risk of serious illness from the H1N1 flu was no higher that that of the annual seasonal flu.

Yet during the H1N1 pandemic (and it can rightly be called one given the numbers infected), there was no lockdown and none of this level of hysteria which has, oddly, driven people to focus on their toilet paper supplies rather than stockpiling vitamin c and zinc.

As Professor Ioannidis warns, our decision to jump off the cliff may turn out to be the end result of a herd mentality driven by irrational fear and emotion rather than actual science aka data.

If we continue on this self destructive trajectory, the long term economic ramifications may lead to far more lives destroyed than the damage done by this virus that, so far, pales in comparison to past pandemics. Worse, the precedent for intrusive state intervention into civil society in the future has been set. A very dangerous precedent based on flimsy evidence.