LESSONS FROM THE PRISONERS OF WAR UPRISING AT BADABER

Thirty five years ago, April 26th,  witnessed the start of the heroic last stand of the Soviet and Afghan prisoners of war at Badaber, a former US Air Base on the outskirts of Peshawar, Pakistan.

The details, which exposed the Pakistan Army's -- specifically General Zia ul Haq's-- complicity, were suppressed by Pakistan's military junta fearful of the 'Great Bear' right at its doorstep.

The duplicitous General, however, wasn't just trying to deceive the Soviets. Nope, he was trying to play BOTH Super Powers for fools.  And he did it rather well, cunning as he was...until the Badaber uprising which exposed the illegal confinement, in brutal conditions, of Russian and other Soviet soldiers and their Afghan comrades.

The Soviet invasion, and occupation, of Afghanistan (1979-1989) gave the Pakistan military an inflated sense of its own self importance.  Which would lead to further actions that would ultimately destabilize the entire region and far beyond, not to mention the state itself, due to inevitable blow back. 

You can't play dirty and expect to stay "clean."

With the Soviet invasion, General Zia, and his cohorts, quickly realized --at the same time Lebanese militias did in Beirut-- that the feared (thus respected) United States government could be manipulated/leveraged/played for more than the "peanuts" Zia so famously declined from Jimmy Carter. 

How dare a Super Power offer "peanuts" for clandestine access to deal the Soviets a big blow in return for Vietnam?!

Thus was set in motion a convoluted US policy in the Eighties vis-a-vis Pakistan whose disastrous effects still resonate today in Afghanistan.

Back to the prisoners of war's uprising at the Badaber base. The details are to be found in my April 26th, 2015 blog post on this site:

http://shireenkhanburki.blogspot.com/2015/04/30th-anniversary-of-prisoner-uprising.html


The key takeaway from this forgotten historical footnote was that General Zia, and his merry band of Generals, were capable of violating international law via the illegal captivity of uniformed prisoners of war held in horrendous conditions.  

Sure the Soviet regime would extract a costly price from the Pakistan Army; just as they did from a certain militia in Beirut when the Lebanese tried identical tricks, which worked so successfully with the Reagan Administration, in order to extract generous ransoms. One backfired attempt.

There was a movie made in the 90s called "Peshawar Waltz" about this brave last stand of these prisoners of war at Badaber.


Footnote: Finding Bin Laden in Abbottabad military cantonment should've been expected given the duplicitous Pakistani track record. 

CORONAVIRUS DEMOGRAPHICS OFFERS CLUES AS TO SANE RESPONSE

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Age of Coronavirus Deaths

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old	21.9%	14.8%
70-79 years old		8.0%
60-69 years old		3.6%
50-59 years old		1.3%
40-49 years old		0.4%
30-39 years old		0.2%
20-29 years old		0.2%
10-19 years old		0.2%
0-9 years old		no fatalities

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group.

In general, relatively few cases are seen among children.

Pre-existing medical conditions (comorbidities)

Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are:

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
Cardiovascular disease	13.2%	10.5%
Diabetes	9.2%	7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease	8.0%	6.3%
Hypertension	8.4%	6.0%
Cancer	7.6%	5.6%
no pre-existing conditions		0.9%

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.

This bizarre current state of affairs, i.e. a detrimental overreaction to a variant of the flu (yes, that's all it is) has our recently vibrant economy on the brink of a deliberate collapse. 

Who gains?

That is the question.

Not to minimize this flu variant, but using a hammer vice a screw driver to address the problem is way overkill (no pun intended). 

The chart above speaks for itself. Unlike the Spanish influenza which killed off the young (sorry, but THEY are the most vital/valuable component of our civilization, not someone like me in their mid-50s), this virus is a Malthusian wet dream: it targets the weak/vulnerable and those past their economic prime. 

That is the reality. 

Does that mean we shouldn't address this latest flu? Of course not. 

However, shutting down the entire country and keeping young and healthy people out of school, and the workforce, has long term unforeseen consequences. Dire consequences that will have the "experts" scratching their heads in the future as to what actually transpired and "lessons learned" (although if history is any guide, those "lessons" will end up forgotten come the next crisis).

What should've happened is those with preexisting conditions, the elderly and such should be quarantined (voluntarily). If this population ignores the guidelines then the onus is on them. Every effort should be made to offer priority care to said populace.

The rest of us should have gone on as business as usual.

Just like we do every year during the Flu season. This past flu season we had over 30,000 plus dead. Yet, life went on. As it should. Must. Civilization depends on carrying on, not shutting down.

Imposition of quasi martial law, will lead to far more dead (suicides, opioid overdoses, obesity related illnesses) as our governments (local and state) impose closures of schools and businesses so everyone runs to stockpile food and toilet paper that they don't need, sit at home and eat. Gyms and parks are closed. 

Destruction of civil society is not the solution. Had this been the equivalent of the Black Plague, then a much more draconian response may be required, but people aren't dying in the 1000s on a daily basis. 

Yes, it is unfortunate that some will die from this new virus. But death is inevitable. Just like, as a society, we try to mitigate disappointment, struggle and hardship (prizes for all, everyone is a winner), we seem to be hell bent of mitigating the inevitable: DEATH.  

Problem is: we can't. Delay, sure. Eliminate, nope.  

Sanity must prevail and the country needs to get back on its feet.

Professor Victor Davis Hanson's article: "America in a New Upside-Down World"

https://amgreatness.com/2020/03/15/america-in-a-new-upside-down-world/

Another excellent article:

https://archive.fo/sAElA

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

MARCH 26 2020: CORONAVIRUS "CRISIS" UPDATE

Realize no one reads this blog. But I find it quite cathartic to occasionally vent on topics that frustrate because, far too often, unfolding events are like watching in slow motion a horrific train crash. 
Whatever happened to common sense and self assessment vice listening to those with ulterior agendas aka fear mongers? OK, notwithstanding Lord Disraeli's warning about statistics, aka cooking the books ("Lies, damned lies and statistics), let's delve into the NUMBERS as of today March 26, 2020. 
Here is the reliable website link:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

According to the latest information as of 9:30 AM EST, China, Italy and the UK have ZERO new cases. Granted Chinese statistics need to be caveated as "reader beware." The US had 10 dead. Does this sound like a pandemic along the lines of the Bubonic Plague or the Spanish influenza? Yet, we have shut down our economy and added another two TRILLION to our overweight debt. 

There is something very sinister about all this. We have given both our federal and state governments carte blanche powers that are unprecedented in our history. That should give room for pause. Amazing how easy it has all been for certain entities all at the expense of civil society. 

Granted these numbers will inevitably increase but the larger context needs to be kept in mind: destroying our economy by shutting it down and forcing healthy people to stay in place makes no logical sense. If quarantine is necessary (which I suspect it isn't), it should be targeting people who are in poor health due to obesity and poor lifestyle choices, have pre-existing medical conditions and/or have compromised immune systems. 

The rest of us need to develop herd immunity for the next iteration of this variant of the flu virus. Preventing herd immunity of the healthy translates into a similar situation next time Covid-19 appears. Will shut downs become a very dangerous, suicidal, societal norm?

CASES TODAY AS OF 9:30AM EST, MARCH 26, 2020:

• Now
• Yesterday

Search:

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Tot Deaths/ 1M pop
China	81,285	+67	3,287	+6	74,051	3,947	1,235	56	2
Italy	74,386		7,503		9,362	57,521	3,489	1,230	124
USA	68,814	+603	1,037	+10	428	67,349	1,455	208	3
Spain	56,188	+6,673	4,089	+442	7,015	45,084	3,166	1,202	87
Germany	39,572	+2,249	224	+18	3,959	35,389	23	472	3
Iran	29,406	+2,389	2,234	+157	10,457	16,715	2,746	350	27
France	25,233		1,331		3,900	20,002	2,827	387	20
Switzerland	11,316	+419	171	+18	131	11,014	141	1,308	20
UK	9,529		465		135	8,929	163	140	7

THE CORONAVIRUS BOONDOGGLE: THE POLITICS OF STATE INTERVENTION

Just judging from the numbers, the response of both our Federal and State governments to the Corona Virus, aka Chinese Virus, is mind boggling on multiple levels. Worse it sets a dangerous precedent for intrusive government intervention into controlling (even destroying) our individual lives, all in the name of "collective safety."

Comparatively speaking, the annual Flu season has been far deadlier yet, as in the past, it has not led the government to intervene and force massive social and economic disruption. What gives?

Again, comparatively speaking, this "health crisis" --referred to as a "Pandemic" (which it is not; more later on that)-- doesn't compare to actual Pandemics, the worst of which was the 14th century Black Plague that cost Europe a third of its population. ONE IN THREE PEOPLE DEAD. It took two hundred years for Europe to recover in terms of numbers.

Here in the state of Virginia, we have a total of 125 cases and 2 deaths as of March 21st, 2020. Yes, TWO people out of a population of 8.5 million have died. Yet, we are in essence in a lock down. The only places open are grocery stores and gas stations.  Schools are closed, as are places of employment, over a few cases of a variant of the flu. Albeit, a new strain.

So why is it being called a "Pandemic"?

Definition of a Pandemic from the Dictionary of Epidemiology:

A pandemic is an epidemic occurring on a scale that crosses international boundaries, usually affecting a large number of people.

What is the threshold in terms of numbers and deaths that rises to the level of a "pandemic"? How is this determined and by whom?

 Given that our global population is approaching 8 Billion, wouldn't a "pandemic" would involve something approaching a billion souls infected?

So let's look at the current numbers (as of March 21, 2020) of a virus that first appeared in China in November of last year:
307,000 cases globally; 13,000 deaths and 95,000 recovered.

Does this sound like a "pandemic" worthy of destroying our economy??

To put the current virus in its proper historical perspective, see this excellent article that provides timely context:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8120631/Visual-timeline-coronavirus-compares-historys-deadly-pandemics.html

Please see this useful website for daily updates and other data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

According to Stanford professor of epidemiology and population health, John P.A. Ioannidis: 

In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.

The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.

One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.

If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Given the current draconian measures that have forced most of the  country into lock down, one needs to ask "why now?"   In comparison, the H1N1, also known as the Swine Flu (January 2009 to August 2010),  infected an estimated 11 to 21 % of the global population (700 million-1.4 billion out of 6.8 billion), which was more than the number of people infected by the 1918 Spanish Influenza and had between 150,000 to 575,000 fatalities.

On December 10, 2009, the CDC reported an estimated 50 million Americans (1 in 6 people) had been infected with the 2009 H1N1 Virus.  By December, 10,000 Americans had died. A September 2010 study concluded that the risk of serious illness from the H1N1 flu was no higher that that of the annual seasonal flu.

Yet during the H1N1 pandemic (and it can rightly be called one given the numbers infected), there was no lockdown and none of this level of hysteria which has, oddly, driven people to focus on their toilet paper supplies rather than stockpiling vitamin c and zinc.

As Professor Ioannidis warns, our decision to jump off the cliff may turn out to be the end result of a herd mentality driven by irrational fear and emotion rather than actual science aka data.

If we continue on this self destructive trajectory, the long term economic ramifications may lead to far more lives destroyed than the damage done by this virus that, so far, pales in comparison to past pandemics. Worse, the precedent for intrusive state intervention into civil society in the future has been set. A very dangerous precedent based on flimsy evidence.

ON AFGHANISTAN: A SINISTER WASHINGTON BOONDOGGLE

The Washington Post article ("At War With The Truth") made me cry. The truth is always the first casualty, but not the worst. It's the lives (generally young) and limbs lost, that evokes a deep and unrelenting sadness. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-confidential-documents/

Excerpt:

A confidential trove of government documents obtained by The Washington Post reveals that senior U.S. officials failed to tell the truth about the war in Afghanistan throughout the 18-year campaign, making rosy pronouncements they knew to be false and hiding unmistakable evidence the war had become unwinnable.


This expose did not come as a surprise to most Americans. Certainly not to me --someone with an intimate connection to the place and its bloody past. 

Afghanistan.  Forty years. 40. So many dead. All sides. All ages. Afghan. Soviets. Pakistanis. Americans. So much blood shed. For what? TO WHAT END? 

DEATH, more death. Unrelenting violence.

Maimed children (the lucky ones) begging on the streets with huge smiles on their faces....grateful for life. Widows in their black burkas searching for their loved ones. Smiling Soviet troops waving from their vehicles on their way to their deaths. Mujahedin with their Lee Enfields and AK-47s smiling and nodding their goodbyes as they trudge towards their deaths. Some with roses in their hair and tawiz (amulets) around their necks. Young Marines in a culture brief eager to avenge 9/11.

Haunting smiles. Haunting faces. Everywhere. All sides. EVERYONE was/is impacted. There are no "innocents" here. Except the children. And the young gullible fighters following orders (lawful and unlawful).

Afghanistan. It's like a scab. That keeps getting picked at, never to heal. 

The PTSD. No one was/is immune. Not the Soviets, nor the Americans, nor especially the Afghan people who've borne the brunt of it. Forty years. 

Quote: "Since 2001, more than 775,000 U.S. troops have deployed to Afghanistan, many repeatedly. Of those, 2,300 died there and 20,589 were wounded in action, according to Defense Department figures." 

How do George Bush, Dick Cheney, Colin Powell, Donald Rumsfeld, Condoleeza Rice, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Susan Rice et al live with themselves with so much blood on their hands? NONE of them with a sibling or child in these unending wars.

How do you confess/admit to the American people (to the grief stricken mothers) that these post 9/11 American casualties were in vain? That, all along, it was a boondoggle, concocted in Washington, for such nefarious reasons that any rapid, and clear, revelations of what transpired, and continues to transpire, might just shock the American public at large to rise up from their long slumber to challenge the embedded tyranny of what has lately been labeled "the Deep State." 

The American Revolution was fought over stamp taxes. Today, we the American people are not under a foreign yoke. But we are under the boot of an insidious "class" of individuals (forget the party labels) whose self interest can be classified as "treasonous." Furthermore, these traitors have all sorts of convoluted foreign "connections" due to a fatal flaw in our political system, which allows foreign money to flow into the coffers of our political class.

Back to the Afghan quagmire. Afghanistan was NEVER "winnable." Whatever that means. Hell, a military logistician at the rank of corporal, taking a quick look at Afghanistan's topography and location alone, would've rendered a "no go" verdict on any long term military commitment. 

The reason for invading Afghanistan --albeit under the draconian medieval Taliban-- were flimsy at best. 9/11 wasn't an Afghan attack. The mullahs in Kabul had NOTHING to gain from such an act of war against the globe's Super Power. 

Their distrusted Arab guest, Osama bin Laden --who was hoisted upon them by their external paymasters, the Saudis and the Pakistanis-- approved the Pakistani Khalid Sheikh Muhammad's scheme to strike America. Bin Laden hightailed it out of Afghanistan by the end of 2001 to Pakistan. Along with Zawahiri, he ended up in the bosom of the Pakistan Army for "safekeeping" at the behest of the Saudis. 

So many what ifs of history... one in particular stands out: What if Bush junior instead of publicly shaming Mullah Omar had behind the scenes quietly reached out to him through intermediaries? To work out some sort of an exchange, wherein Mullah Omar handed over his guest for tangible benefits without any fingerprints or evidence of such a transaction that would threaten his position and have him lose public face/honor. Perhaps the Bush administration never really sought OBL after all given the Bush family's close Saudi ties.

Meanwhile our troops spent almost TWO DECADES on a wild goose chase. On missions that had little tactical utility in the long run because of a nonexistent strategy. Sure there were efforts at "strategy" but, due to the inevitable mission creep, the effort to hunt down OBL continued to morph until the end result (today) is something absurd: nation building along the lines of a "western democracy."

The fanatically xenophobic Taliban (even by traditionally xenophobic Afghan standards) weren't our enemy. Not "Taliban Central." At that juncture --prior to our sending troops to overthrow the Taliban-- not even the CIA's former ally, Jallaluddin Haqqani, had any ill intent towards our homeland. While there was no love lost for the American 'infidel,' they didn't care for meddling foreigners, even the so-called Muslim brothers. Our boots on the ground (conventional vice surgical strike) was the game changer. It was akin to entering the worst hornet's nest imaginable. Setting aside our natural inclination to dislike such seemingly medieval entities, the reality was/is (to the best of my current knowledge) that the Taliban had no global aspirations. None. They just wanted to be left alone to oversee their "lovely" Emirate. 

George Bush had another agenda. Iraq was the actual prize. Afghanistan was supposed to be the entry point to Iraq and, more specifically, Saddam Hussein, who was in Bush's cross hairs for reasons one can speculate over. 

Which inevitably brings us to the events of 9/11. After all, to this very day, having our troops in harm's way in Afghanistan is in order to prevent another 9/11. So goes the stale mantra of our "policymakers."  

Who was behind 9/11? 
The profile of the 19 hijackers (Arabs) and the mastermind/leadership (Pakistani -KSM and Saudi, OBL) has zero Afghans. True OBL was plotting in Afghanistan under the very noses of his hosts, the Taliban. But Mullah Omar was betrayed by OBL and the Paks.

Yet, Washington gave the Saudis and the Paks a free pass. Worse, the Pakistan Army (PAIC or Pakistan Army Industrial Complex) were given billions in essence to host bin Laden and his merry band of terrorists. 

Reading the findings, the interviews, I weep for those heroic volunteers in our military who've died or been maimed in our endless wars "on terror." RIP.

President Donald Trump was elected precisely because he was an outsider who promised to bring our troops home. One can hope that the endless wars can be brought to an end and the proper focus can prevail on limiting/controlling ACCESS to our HOMELAND via visas and the border.